Markets/Tennessee/McMinnville

McMinnville, TN Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for McMinnville, Tennessee. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.

Median Home Price

$244,468

+0.0% year-over-year

12-Month Forecast

-6.1%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-6.1% year-over-year

Market Momentum

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Neutral
6.5mo supply ยท Score -1/7

Migration: Top 32% nationally

Income Migration

๐Ÿ’ฐ Wealth Influx1.23x

In-migrants avg $51,339 AGI vs out-migrants $41,750

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Opportunity Zone Market

3 ZIP codes in McMinnville are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more โ†’

McMinnville Market Summary

McMinnville, TN is in a stabilization phase with 0% year-over-year appreciation, suggesting cooling demand and a shift toward balanced conditions. Affordability remains favorable with a price-to-income ratio of 4.52x, below the national average of 4.8x. Modest net positive migration (+71 returns/year) provides steady demand support. Climate risk remains low (25/100), favorable for long-term investment stability.

Affordability

Affordability Score78/100
Price-to-Income Ratio4.5x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$54,088

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-9.2%
Base Case-6.1%
Bull Case-3.1%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

McMinnville, TN's primary climate exposure is tornadoes (50/100). The composite climate risk score of 25/100 (Low) indicates overall risk reflecting favorable conditions for long-term real estate investment. This market benefits from relatively low natural hazard exposure compared to coastal and wildfire-prone regions.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full McMinnville dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.