Memphis, TN-MS-AR Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for Memphis, Tennessee. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.

Median Home Price

$237,926

-0.4% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

7.1%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

-6.1%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-6.1% year-over-year

Market Momentum

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Cooling
4.8mo supply ยท Score -2/7

Migration: Top 98% nationally

Income Migration

๐Ÿ“‰ Wealth Drain0.78x

In-migrants avg $56,949 AGI vs out-migrants $73,296

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Opportunity Zone Market

25 ZIP codes in Memphis are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more โ†’

Memphis Market Summary

Memphis, TN-MS-AR is experiencing a correction with -0.4% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability remains favorable with a price-to-income ratio of 3.67x, below the national average of 4.8x. Net negative migration (-3,513 returns/year) is reducing housing demand pressure. Climate risk remains low (36/100), favorable for long-term investment stability. Rental yield of 7.14% is strong, making this market attractive for buy-and-hold investors.

Affordability

Affordability Score90/100
Price-to-Income Ratio3.7x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$64,743

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-9.2%
Base Case-6.1%
Bull Case-3.1%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

Memphis, TN-MS-AR's primary climate exposure is tornadoes (57/100). The composite climate risk score of 36/100 (Low) indicates overall risk reflecting favorable conditions for long-term real estate investment. This market benefits from relatively low natural hazard exposure compared to coastal and wildfire-prone regions.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full Memphis dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.