Payson, AZ Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for Payson, Arizona. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.

Median Home Price

$376,718

-1.8% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

5.7%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

-6.1%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-6.1% year-over-year

Market Momentum

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Cooling
5.2mo supply ยท Score -3/7

Migration: Top 20% nationally

Income Migration

๐Ÿ’ฐ Wealth Influx1.16x

In-migrants avg $72,934 AGI vs out-migrants $62,811

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Opportunity Zone Market

2 ZIP codes in Payson are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more โ†’

Payson Market Summary

Payson, AZ is experiencing a correction with -1.8% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability pressure is significant: the price-to-income ratio of 6.38x well exceeds the national average of 4.8x. Modest net positive migration (+200 returns/year) provides steady demand support. Climate risk is moderate (50/100) with manageable exposure. Rental yield of 5.66% is moderate, offering acceptable cash flow for leveraged investments.

Affordability

Affordability Score52/100
Price-to-Income Ratio6.4x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$59,089

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-9.2%
Base Case-6.1%
Bull Case-3.1%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

Payson, AZ's primary climate exposure is wildfire (70/100). The composite climate risk score of 50/100 (Moderate) indicates overall risk with manageable exposure that should be factored into investment analysis. Buyers should consider climate-related insurance costs and potential future regulatory changes.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full Payson dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.